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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 42

Tennessee Titans 10 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 13-T.Zentner punts 34 yards to SEA 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas. PENALTY on SEA-31-D.Dallas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 4 yards, enforced at SEA 8.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.67 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model