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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 10 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(6:27) (No Huddle) 32-T.Spears up the middle to SEA 25 for 2 yards (55-D.Jones; 54-B.Wagner).

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.21 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model