Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 1 at the 22
Arizona Cardinals 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14
What Actually Happened
(4:03) 6-J.Conner left end to PHI 19 for 3 yards (41-N.Morrow, 31-K.Byard).
The Three Options
GO
+2.47 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.19 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.83 EP
KICK
+1.54 EP
- 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 11% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT
-0.34 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
