Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ARI offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- QB edge to PHI: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.147 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.096 EPA/dropback
- PHI defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- PHI offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- ARI defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
ARI
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:12 FG ARI (5:12) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 3 – PHI 0
- Q1 00:42 TD PHI (:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 80-J.Jones for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – PHI 6
- Q2 12:01 TD PHI (12:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Brown [94-J.Sweat] at PHI 1. 21-S.Brown for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – PHI 13
- Q2 01:53 FG ARI (1:53) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 6 – PHI 14
- Q2 00:24 TD PHI (:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 80-J.Jones for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – PHI 20
- Q3 08:48 TD ARI (8:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 22-M.Carter for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 12 – PHI 21
- Q3 02:10 TD ARI (2:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.Conner for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-M.Williams]. ARI 19 – PHI 21
- Q4 10:02 TD PHI (10:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 21 – PHI 27
- Q4 05:30 TD ARI (5:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 27 – PHI 28
- Q4 02:37 FG PHI (2:37) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. ARI 28 – PHI 31
- Q4 00:36 TD ARI (:36) 6-J.Conner right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 34 – PHI 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 64%
(13:09) 10-B.Mann punts 56 yards to ARI 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 26 for 15 yards (45-R.Lovato).
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Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%
(5:12) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%
(4:03) 6-J.Conner left end to PHI 19 for 3 yards (41-N.Morrow, 31-K.Byard).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%
(1:53) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(7:16) 10-B.Mann punts 61 yards to ARI 9, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 23 for 14 yards (48-P.Johnson).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 16Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%
(12:20) 1-J.Hurts left guard to ARI 15 for 1 yard (18-B.Ojulari).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%
(5:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 15 at the 25 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 86%
(2:37) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.