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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.91 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model