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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 25

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.77 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model