4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 10

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model