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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 69

Chicago Bears 14 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to ATL 28, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 27, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model