ATL @ CHI — 4th & Data

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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith

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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus

Sunday 2023-12-31 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

ATL

42.2%

CHI

57.8%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CHI defense: -0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
QB edge to ATL: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.179 vs Taylor Heinicke (ATL) -0.018 EPA/dropback
ATL offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
CHI offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
ATL defense: -0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 20

–

CHI 22

Projected margin: CHI by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

ATL

Kaleb McGary T Questionable Knee

CHI

Darnell Mooney WR Out Concussion

Cole Kmet TE Questionable Knee

Lucas Patrick C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 17

–

CHI 37

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:52 TD CHI (8:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. ATL 0 – CHI 6
Q2 14:20 TD CHI (14:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields left guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CHI 13
Q2 14:14 TD ATL (14:14) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 25-T.Allgeier for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – CHI 14
Q2 04:06 TD CHI (4:06) (Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – CHI 20
Q3 12:00 FG CHI (12:00) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. ATL 7 – CHI 24
Q3 08:33 FG ATL (8:33) 6-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 10 – CHI 24
Q3 01:14 FG CHI (1:14) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. ATL 10 – CHI 27
Q4 12:32 TD ATL (12:32) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles left end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – CHI 27
Q4 05:04 FG CHI (5:04) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. ATL 17 – CHI 30
Q4 03:42 TD CHI (3:42) 24-K.Herbert right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – CHI 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 77%

(12:24) 6-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 88%

(3:22) 6-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(12:44) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to ATL 28, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.
Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(11:14) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to CHI 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 3

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

(4:54) 1-J.Fields up the middle to ATL 2 for 1 yard (3-J.Bates).
Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(3:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CHI 30, Center-49-L.McCullough. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 34 for 4 yards (18-M.Hollins).
Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(1:52) 16-T.Gill punts 53 yards to ATL 15, Center-48-P.Scales. 20-D.Alford to ATL 27 for 12 yards (57-J.Sanborn).
Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 37

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 64%

(:04) 8-C.Santos 55 yard field goal is No Good, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. 20-D.Alford at ATL -9 to CHI 13 for 96 yards (62-L.Patrick).
Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

(12:00) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 19

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%

(8:33) 6-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 38

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 62%

(4:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete deep right.
Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 24

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 88%

(1:14) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 31%

(8:52) 16-T.Gill punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(8:29) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to CHI 41, Center-49-L.McCullough. 15-T.Taylor to ATL 44 for 15 yards (18-M.Hollins).
Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 88%

(5:04) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q4 ATL 4th & 17 at the 82 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.59 EP

p(convert) 27%

(4:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle intended for 12-K.Hodge INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at ATL 41. 6-K.Gordon to ATL 41 for no gain (12-K.Hodge).
Q4 CHI 4th & 18 at the 75 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(1:08) 16-T.Gill punts 51 yards to ATL 24, Center-48-P.Scales. 20-D.Alford pushed ob at ATL 41 for 17 yards (16-T.Gill). PENALTY on ATL-37-D.Hellams, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 39.