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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to CHI 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.86 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 28, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model