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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 3
Chicago Bears 14 – Atlanta Falcons 7
What Actually Happened
(4:54) 1-J.Fields up the middle to ATL 2 for 1 yard (3-J.Bates).
The Three Options
GO
+4.04 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.28 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 3, worth +0.27 EP
KICK
+2.06 EP
- 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT
-0.16 EP
- Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
