Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Chicago Bears 21

(3:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CHI 30, Center-49-L.McCullough. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 34 for 4 yards (18-M.Hollins).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model