Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 68

Chicago Bears 21 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(1:52) 16-T.Gill punts 53 yards to ATL 15, Center-48-P.Scales. 20-D.Alford to ATL 27 for 12 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.26 EP
70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model