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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 4

Chicago Bears 21 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.39 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 4, worth +0.68 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.43 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP