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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 6-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.06 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 19, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model