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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Chicago Bears
4th & 6 at the 38
Chicago Bears 24 – Atlanta Falcons 10
What Actually Happened
(4:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete deep right.
The Three Options
GO
+0.52 EP
What Happened
-
37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.99 EP
- 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.56 EP
KICK
+0.64 EP
Model's Pick
- 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
- 38% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT
+0.38 EP
- Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.38 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
