Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Chicago Bears 27

(8:29) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to CHI 41, Center-49-L.McCullough. 15-T.Taylor to ATL 44 for 15 yards (18-M.Hollins).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model