Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 82

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Chicago Bears 30

What Actually Happened

(4:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle intended for 12-K.Hodge INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at ATL 41. 6-K.Gordon to ATL 41 for no gain (12-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

What Happened

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.08 EP
73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 82, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.59 EP