Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 75

Chicago Bears 37 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 16-T.Gill punts 51 yards to ATL 24, Center-48-P.Scales. 20-D.Alford pushed ob at ATL 41 for 17 yards (16-T.Gill). PENALTY on ATL-37-D.Hellams, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.33 EP
74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model