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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 24

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 6-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.67 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model