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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 17-E.Engram to CAR 35 for 4 yards (40-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.62 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model