CAR @ JAX — 4th & Data

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Carolina Panthers

HC Chris Tabor

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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson

Sunday 2023-12-31 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

CAR

32.0%

JAX

68.0%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CAR offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
Bryce Young (CAR): -0.241 EPA/dropback in prior starts
JAX offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
JAX defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 18

–

JAX 23

Projected margin: JAX by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CAR

Troy Hill CB Out Concussion

Marquis Haynes LB Questionable Back

Ikem Ekwonu T Questionable Foot

Jaycee Horn CB Questionable Toe

Frankie Luvu LB Questionable Quadricep

JAX

Trevor Lawrence QB Out right Shoulder

Zay Jones WR Questionable Knee

Cam Robinson T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 0

–

JAX 26

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:40 FG JAX (8:40) 10-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CAR 0 – JAX 3
Q2 07:22 FG JAX (7:22) 10-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CAR 0 – JAX 6
Q2 02:48 FG JAX (2:48) 10-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CAR 0 – JAX 9
Q3 12:10 TD JAX (12:10) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right end for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – JAX 15
Q3 03:04 FG JAX (3:04) 10-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CAR 0 – JAX 19
Q4 04:18 TD JAX (4:18) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to CAR 1 for no gain (97-Y.Gross-Matos; 99-S.Tuttle). FUMBLES (97-Y.Gross-Matos), recovered by JAX-77-A.Harrison at CAR 3. Jacksonville challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – JAX 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 JAX 4th & 16 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

(8:40) 10-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 38

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 60%

(4:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at JAX 24 for 14 yards (5-A.Cisco) [23-F.Oluokun].
Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 21

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

(2:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at JAX 31 for -10 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.
Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 26%

(14:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to CAR 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 22 for 8 yards (42-A.Wingard).
Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(13:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to JAX 38, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 39

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 57%

(10:38) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 17-E.Engram to CAR 35 for 4 yards (40-D.Jones).
Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 8

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

(7:22) 10-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

(2:48) 10-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(1:56) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to JAX 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
Q2 JAX 4th & 13 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(1:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to CAR 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at CAR 27 for 1 yard (57-C.Johnson). PENALTY on JAX-57-C.Johnson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 27.
Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 24%

(:29) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 68

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP

p(convert) 53%

(13:01) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to JAX 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-P.Washington to JAX 34 for 15 yards (29-D.Jamison).
Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP

p(convert) 59%

(10:36) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to JAX 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-P.Washington to JAX 17 for 2 yards (29-D.Jamison).
Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

(3:04) 10-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 55

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 58%

(14:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 6-M.Sanders to JAX 48 for 7 yards (37-T.Herndon).
Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 50

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 29%

(11:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 17-D.Chark to JAX 32 for 18 yards (32-Ty.Campbell).
Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 29

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

(10:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Chark.
Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 63

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 53%

(7:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to CAR 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-30-M.Brown.
Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 85

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(6:28) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 84-S.Sullivan.