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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to JAX 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-P.Washington to JAX 34 for 15 yards (29-D.Jamison).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP