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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 55

Carolina Panthers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(14:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 6-M.Sanders to JAX 48 for 7 yards (37-T.Herndon).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.48 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model