4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(11:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 17-D.Chark to JAX 32 for 18 yards (32-Ty.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.34 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model