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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(10:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Chark.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.38 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP