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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to CAR 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-30-M.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.87 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP