Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 85

Carolina Panthers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

(6:28) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 84-S.Sullivan.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

What Happened

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.85 EP
54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model