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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(4:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at JAX 24 for 14 yards (5-A.Cisco) [23-F.Oluokun].

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.32 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model