4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 21

Carolina Panthers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(2:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at JAX 31 for -10 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.88 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP