Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 86

Carolina Panthers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(13:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to JAX 38, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.55 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.87 EP
73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 86, worth -5.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model