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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 24

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(:39) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.95 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model