4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2023-12-31 · 16:25 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CIN
42.3%
KC
57.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20
–
KC 23
Projected margin: KC by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CIN

Ja'Marr Chase WR Questionable Shoulder
Jalen Davis CB Questionable Groin

KC

Donovan Smith T Out Neck
Kadarius Toney WR Out Hip
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB Questionable Illness
L'Jarius Sneed CB Questionable Calf
Mecole Hardman WR Questionable Thumb
Isiah Pacheco RB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 17
–
KC 25

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:26 FG CIN (6:26) 2-E.McPherson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. CIN 3 – KC 0
  • Q1 03:02 TD KC (3:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-I.Pacheco for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – KC 6
  • Q2 11:32 TD CIN (11:32) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – KC 7
  • Q2 06:28 TD CIN (6:28) 6-J.Browning scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – KC 7
  • Q2 03:49 FG KC (3:49) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CIN 17 – KC 10
  • Q2 00:39 FG KC (:39) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CIN 17 – KC 13
  • Q3 04:34 FG KC (4:34) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CIN 17 – KC 16
  • Q4 14:12 FG KC (14:12) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CIN 17 – KC 19
  • Q4 06:22 FG KC (6:22) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CIN 17 – KC 22
  • Q4 03:03 FG KC (3:03) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CIN 17 – KC 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (6:26) 2-E.McPherson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 62%

    (3:49) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:11) 10-B.Robbins punts 44 yards to KC 32, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-32-T.Williams.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 86%

    (:39) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:47) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to CIN 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-C.Jones to CIN 17 for 1 yard (2-J.Williams).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (7:47) 61-C.Ford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle to KC 9 for -3 yards (50-W.Gay).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 97%

    (4:34) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 26%

    (2:49) 10-B.Robbins punts 51 yards to KC -1, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 17-R.James ran ob at KC 9 for 10 yards (51-M.Bailey).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (14:12) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:19) 10-B.Robbins punts 42 yards to KC 31, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-84-M.Wilcox.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 62%

    (9:09) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end to CIN 34 for 2 yards (94-S.Hubbard).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 76%

    (6:22) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 80%

    (3:03) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 18 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd to KC 45 for 23 yards (27-C.Conner).