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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to CIN 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-C.Jones to CIN 17 for 1 yard (2-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model