4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 6

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 61-C.Ford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle to KC 9 for -3 yards (50-W.Gay).

The Three Options

GO +3.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.79 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 6, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model