4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 6

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP