Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

(13:19) 10-B.Robbins punts 42 yards to KC 31, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-84-M.Wilcox.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model