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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 28

Kansas City Chiefs 22 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.64 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP