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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 19-D.Whelan punts 54 yards to MIN 23, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell to MIN 23 for no gain (22-R.Rochell).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.03 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 77, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 34, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model