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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2023-12-31 · 20:20 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

GB
78.7%
MIN
21.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Jaren Hall (MIN): -1.153 EPA/dropback in prior starts (MIN starting Jaren Hall in place of Nick Mullens)
  • GB offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • GB defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Jaren Hall (MIN) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

GB 25
–
MIN 17
Projected margin: GB by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

GB

Eric Stokes CB Out Hamstring
De'Vondre Campbell LB Doubtful Neck
Christian Watson WR Doubtful Hamstring
Luke Tenuta T Doubtful Ankle
Emanuel Wilson RB Doubtful Shoulder
Luke Musgrave TE Doubtful kidney
Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Chest
Robert Rochell CB Questionable Neck
Darnell Savage S Questionable Shoulder
Tedarrell Slaton DT Questionable Knee

MIN

Theo Jackson S Out Toe
Byron Murphy CB Out Knee
Jalen Nailor WR Out Concussion
Jaquelin Roy DT Out Ankle
Jordan Addison WR Questionable Ankle
Mekhi Blackmon CB Questionable Shoulder
Troy Dye LB Questionable Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 33
–
MIN 10

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:47 FG GB (6:47) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 05:15 TD GB (5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 11-J.Reed for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – MIN 0
  • Q2 09:30 FG MIN (9:30) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. GB 10 – MIN 3
  • Q2 04:02 TD GB (4:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – MIN 3
  • Q2 00:17 TD GB (:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 11-J.Reed for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – MIN 3
  • Q3 00:54 TD GB (:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 80-B.Melton for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 29 – MIN 3
  • Q4 14:10 TD MIN (14:10) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short left to 86-J.Mundt for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-P.Smith]. GB 30 – MIN 9
  • Q4 06:15 FG GB (6:15) 17-A.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 33 – MIN 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:08) 19-D.Whelan punts 54 yards to MIN 23, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell to MIN 23 for no gain (22-R.Rochell).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:44) 14-R.Wright punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (6:47) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:34) 14-R.Wright punts 30 yards to GB 26, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%

    (13:24) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 80-B.Melton.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 70%

    (9:30) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 16 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:54) 14-R.Wright punts 52 yards to GB 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIN 34, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell to MIN 38 for 4 yards (20-R.Ford).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 97%

    (8:54) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Jefferson [7-Q.Walker].

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (15:00) 14-R.Wright punts 55 yards to GB 20, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-S.Toure MUFFS catch, touched at GB 20, RECOVERED by MIN-11-N.Thompson at GB 7.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (6:15) 17-A.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 97%

    (3:03) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass incomplete short right to 4-B.Powell (25-K.Nixon) [52-R.Gary].