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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 14-R.Wright punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.15 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP