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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 10

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 33

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass incomplete short right to 4-B.Powell (25-K.Nixon) [52-R.Gary].

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.07 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model