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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 14-R.Wright punts 30 yards to GB 26, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.96 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP