4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 18

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.12 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 18, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model