LAC @ DEN — 4th & Data

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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Giff Smith

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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton

Sunday 2023-12-31 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

LAC

31.5%

DEN

68.5%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

LAC offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
DEN defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
DEN offense: -0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
QB edge to DEN: Jarrett Stidham (DEN) -0.057 vs Easton Stick (LAC) -0.183 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Jarrett Stidham in place of Russell Wilson)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 18

–

DEN 23

Projected margin: DEN by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

LAC

Keenan Allen WR Out Heel

Josh Palmer WR Out Concussion

Joey Bosa DE Out Foot

Kenneth Murray LB Doubtful Shoulder

Nicholas Williams DT Doubtful Shoulder

Tanner Muse LB Doubtful Knee

Zion Johnson G Questionable Neck

Nick Vannett TE Questionable Back

Deane Leonard CB Questionable Heel

DEN

Baron Browning LB Out Concussion

Greg Dulcich TE Out Hamstring

Courtland Sutton WR Out Concussion

Alex Palczewski T Out Knee

Jerry Jeudy WR Questionable Illness

Marvin Mims WR Questionable Hamstring

Dwayne Washington RB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 9

–

DEN 16

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 03:58 FG DEN (3:58) 16-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. LAC 0 – DEN 3
Q2 09:46 FG LAC (9:46) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – DEN 3
Q2 06:52 TD DEN (6:52) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short right to 17-L.Humphrey for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – DEN 9
Q2 01:57 FG DEN (1:57) 16-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. LAC 3 – DEN 13
Q3 06:24 FG LAC (6:24) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 6 – DEN 13
Q4 11:22 FG DEN (11:22) 16-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. LAC 6 – DEN 16
Q4 01:21 FG LAC (1:21) 11-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 9 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP

p(convert) 58%

(13:58) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 83-M.Bandy.
Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(11:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 63 yards to LAC 3, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 15 for 12 yards (48-M.Fraboni; 41-D.Sanders). DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell was injured during the play.
Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(9:57) 16-J.Scott punts 61 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 1-Tr.Smith to DEN 34 for 14 yards (31-N.Niemann; 0-D.Henley).
Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

(3:58) 16-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 33%

(2:24) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-31-N.Niemann.
Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

(9:46) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 56

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68%

(2:55) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-N.Niemann. 31-N.Niemann FUMBLES (Aborted) at LAC 40, and recovers at LAC 42. 31-N.Niemann to LAC 42 for no gain (41-D.Sanders).
Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 86%

(1:57) 16-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q2 LAC 4th & 14 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 26%

(:31) 16-J.Scott punts 37 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 83-M.Bandy.
Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(10:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to LAC 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-45-N.Adkins.
Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 32

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 75%

(6:24) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 71%

(4:26) 75-Q.Bailey reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams left guard to DEN 35 for 1 yard (52-K.Mack).
Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(1:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LAC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.70 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

(11:22) 16-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 54

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(10:11) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston to DEN 49 for 5 yards (2-P.Surtain).
Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 75%

(6:23) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-Z.Allen), Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 49 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 33%

(3:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.