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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(2:55) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-N.Niemann. 31-N.Niemann FUMBLES (Aborted) at LAC 40, and recovers at LAC 42. 31-N.Niemann to LAC 42 for no gain (41-D.Sanders).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.00 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model