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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 25

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 16-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.50 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model