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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 52

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(:31) 16-J.Scott punts 37 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 83-M.Bandy.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.43 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model