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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 55

Denver Broncos 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to LAC 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-45-N.Adkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.85 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model