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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(10:11) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston to DEN 49 for 5 yards (2-P.Surtain).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.42 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 54, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model